The Fate of the Sa’ud:An analysis on the fulfillment of the Prophecy

From the infallible Imams:

“When the King of Hejaz named Abdullah is killed, there will be no more agreement among the Muslims, the “Fulan” Dynasty will fall, bitter and bloody fights will take place until the Day Al-Qa’im emerges (May God hasten the time)” 

The Sa’ud dynasty has uniqueness in the inheritance of kingship; it does so not by transferring power to the next generation, rather by giving it to siblings from the same generation. With tenths of brothers (some sources said 60 to 80), this kind of arrangements seemed all right and would spare the dynasty with troubling power struggle between sons, since the next son could wait to become successor after his older brother passes away. Next to King Abdul Aziz, the founder of Saudi Arabia, all other kings were from the same generation. There has been no precedence in handing over power to the third generation (grand-son of Abdul Aziz). With the youngest son born in the 1940’s, all Saudi Prince’s have now reached old age[1]. At the present time, the candidates of prince’s that are ready to replace King Abdullah are as follows1[2]:

• Sultan bin Abdul Aziz (Crown Prince) (born 1926)
• Abd al-Rahman bin Abdul Aziz (1931)
• Mutaib bin Abdul Aziz (1931)
• Badr bin Abdul Aziz (1933)
• Nayef bin Abdul Aziz (1933)
• Salman bin Abdul Aziz (1936)
• Ahmed bin Abdul Aziz (1940)
• Sattam bin Abdul Aziz (1941)
• Muqran bin Abdul Aziz (1945)

At the present, the crown prince is 81 years old, and the youngest prince is 62 years old.The current king, Abdullah, formed for the first time the “Bay’ah Council” in 2006 which, in theory, would guarantee smooth transition of power. This is a new tradition. Previously, this king also appointed Sultan as Crown prince, a deviation of tradition on seniority, since there are other brothers who are older than Sultan. These older brothers are[3]:

• Bandar bin Abdul Aziz (born 1923)
• Musa’id bin Abdul Aziz (born 1923)
• Mishaal bin Abdul Aziz (born 1926, same year as the Crown Prince)

These three brothers are practically ruled out of the line of succession and hence will never be king in the future. Interesting to note is that these all three have either stepped aside or have been sidelined for health reasons or by family consensus or by their unwillingness to participate in governing.We need to elaborate more on the profiles of these three senior brothers.

• Bandar bin Abdul Aziz

A Wahhabi hard-liner that has shown some reluctance in being involved in the government. His strong observance in religion might cause general un-acceptance in both the family and the US ally. There are some who considered him a strong backer of Al-Qaeda, and is suspected of being somewhat involved in recent Al-Qaeda uprisings in Saudi Arabia. His political line of straight Fundamentalism is directly opposing the current King’s line of Liberalism. Despite his un-popular path in the eyes of the family, he has won some support in grass-root population that resent the dynasty’s close ties with the “infidel” USA.

• Musa’id bin Abdul Aziz

The father of Faisal bin Musa’id who killed King Faisal in 1975. His cast away stem from this fact. At the present he is neither influential nor popular and thus there is nothing much to be said about this person

• Mishaal Bin Abdul Aziz

A close ally of the current King Abdullah, he is mostly involved not in politics but business. He was once a minister in the Kingdom, but now is a prominent businessman, with substantial investments in real estate, insurance, electrical utilities, oil trading, cement manufacture, etc. 

According to tradition, Prince Bandar should be made Crown Prince. But for the interest of national and international politics, the position switched to Sultan instead. This action is disturbing but not without a strong reason. But before entering the reason, let’s see the real motive in the formation of this “Bay’ah” Council. After Abdul Aziz died, the kingship was transferred to his oldest son, Saud (born 1902). Saud reigned until 1964 where he was deposed by a coup from his own family under the support of the ‘ulama[4].

Afterwards Faisal, the second eldest son, was put to the throne. He ruled until 1975 when he was killed by his own nephew, Faisal bin Musa’id.The next to take the throne was Khalid, the next in seniority sequence of the sons of Abdul Aziz. This time things went pretty stable for him, and he ruled until his death of natural causes in 1982[5].

The kingship then moved to Fahd, another brother of the previous kings also in direct sequence of seniority. The stability that was established during the reign of Khalid remained in his days as king, until he also passed his power to King Abdullah.

Fahd died in 2005 and Abdullah, his brother, officially became King.The tradition of passing power to the next younger brother of the closest distance on age seemed to have ended. King Abdullah declared that Sultan to become Crown Prince. In doing this, he left behind Bandar. In previous time, such act of deviate tradition was successful because the family had support from the ‘ulama. This time, King Abdullah knows that he has no support from the ‘ulama, since Prince Bandar is a strong supporter of Islamic-Wahhabi Fundamentalism, and hence had obtained stronger preference than Sultan. In this regard then King Abdullah formed the “Bay’ah” Council, so that despite the absence of ‘ulama’s support his plan could progress smoothly by securing any other potential oppositions from the family. He then expects the military and security forces to contain unrest from the people. Just recently the US announced to support military forces of the Saudi Arabia with sophisticated armament with a value of USD 30 billion. Although it was formally stated that this support was to contain ever-increasing Iran influence, but another agenda of further repressing discontent voices is more obvious, since Iran actually poses much lesser threat to King Abdullah’s reign of power than Al-Qaeda and Prince Bandar.

At this time, the stability that has been in the nature of Saudi Arabia is being disturbed. Numerous Al-Qaeda-linked terror attacks occurred in the country of 25 million inhabitants. The current state of security is under constant threat. Historically, the Saud dynasty has always managed to maintain the balance between hard-line Wahhabism and Western influence. The Saudi has always been know to be a close ally of the United States, but at the same time a strong supporter of Salafy movement around the world that aims for a global “jihad” and the eradication of the Infidels. But nowadays, the Salafy “al-Qaeda” style movements are under attack by Western Forces lead by US.

The Saudi Dynasty is trapped in a battle which is growing fiercer day by day. The exclusion of Prince Bandar seemed to be a part of this entrapment. King Abdullah is forced to take side with the US by removing him from the line of succession, risking more and more un-popular responses from the Saudi People. The frequent attack at foreign assets in Saudi Arabia is a clear indication of this. Taliban has been virtually annihilated, although they seemed to manage to reincarnate, and most of its Saudi-born fighters went home. These ex-Taleban fighters seemed to add volatility in an already very unstable mix. Having a brother that is openly supportive to these terrorists doesn’t make it easier either.At the present time, King Abdullah is using oppressive powers to contain Al-Qaeda insurgents throughout the country. It is important to note however, that oppression never prevails. King Abdullah must find another way to contain the Al-Qaeda influence. In a world at war and a kingdom trapped in between, the resolution seemed to lie more on the outside powers, notably the US decision to reduce pressure on Al-Qaeda, a very unlikely option. Thus it can be said, that the day of this dynasty to remain in power is numbered.

---

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_Saud_of_Saudi_Arabia

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_succession_to_the_Saudi_Arabian_throne

[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_succession_to_the_Saudi_Arabian_throne

[4] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saud_of_Saudi_Arabia

[5] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalid_of_Saudi_Arabia